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• Scots, aspiring to be Basques.

Leading Article [New Statesman] – The debate over Europe has obscured a far more significant constitutional development. Largely unnoticed by Westminster, Alex Salmond has been advancing his strategy for independence. As the Scottish National Party leader told the SNP conference in Inverness, the referendum ballot paper will contain two questions: the first on full independence and the second on fiscal autonomy or “devolution max”. Aware that he may not be able to win a majority for the full break-up of the Union, Scotland’s First Minister is hedging his bets.

But talk of devolution max as an agreeable compromise disguises what a bold step it would be. Scotland would win complete control over spending, borrowing and taxation, leaving Westminster in charge of only foreign affairs and defence – a degree of autonomy comparable to that enjoyed in Spain by the Basque Country and Catalonia. The economic relationship between England and Scotland would be profoundly altered. What, for instance, would be the consequences for English business of Scotland adopting an ultra-low rate of corporation tax? If judged successful, would fiscal autonomy be extended to England and Wales? It is these sorts of questions that Westminster must begin to debate.

In the meantime, it would be hubristic to dismiss Mr Salmond’s chances of winning full independence. The SNP has amassed a £1m war chest and the polls are moving its way. A ComRes survey published on 15 October showed that 49 per cent of Scots now favour independence, with just 37 per cent opposed. The Scottish Lib Dem leader, Willie Rennie, posed the question: “What if devo max got 99 per cent Yes and 1 per cent No in the vote, while the independence option got 51 per cent Yes and 49 per cent No?” But Mr Salmond has confirmed that a slim majority for independence would overwrite a large majority for devolution max.

Labour and the Conservatives, currently leaderless in Scotland, have struggled to articulate a coherent alternative to independence.

Continued at New Statesman | More Chronicle & Notices.

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